Greatest Triumph, or Greatest Disaster

[Sun Tzu]

Its a well known fact that the majority of the world, the United States especially, is overly dependant on oil. We use it for everything, and it provides the biggest energetic bang for our buck. Not only do we use it for the gasoline that drives our cars, but it has also fueled a vast population boom. The green revolution it was called, where petroleum based fertalizers and gas driven tractors drove the price of food through the floor. Food became so cheap that the government actually has begun having to subsadize their farmers to make sure they make ends meat.

The prime consumer of petroleum is the United States, being the most powerful and economically developed country in the world. Following the United States' example two countries have begun following in its foot steps, reshaping their own economic structure to be dependant on oil, consuming even more of this precious life blood.

Oil is a non renewable resource, which means we can't get more of it. Oil is organic matter that has been slowly compressed over millions of years, pooling all of the energy that the previous organism used to hold, until it resembles the black sticky substance we have now. Up to this point we have not been able to find a renewable substance that pacts even a remotely similar punch that oil contains. We are getting close however.

So what happens when we run out of this precious resource? Not only do our modern conveniences vanish, but we lack the ability to feed even a quarter of the population we currently possess. A massive die off will begin, the poor first, followed by the middle class and many of the rich. Few will survive, and after we restabilize ourselves we will be unrecognizable. Now this is of course only going to happen if we don't use the weapons we have built. Weapons of mass destruction, capable of wiping an entire continent off the face of the earth. Highly unlikely that we will be able to resist using them when everyone is beginning to feel the squeeze of starvation. So off we fire our nuclear missiles in conflict over the few remaining rich oil reserves left on the earth, altering the climate, destroying human life, and just generally doing bad things.

Yes we are perhaps in more danger now as a species than we have ever been. But we also have a supreme opportunity to reshape everything, eliminating much ecological strain, and removing our dependence on a foreign energy source. We can re craft ourselves into a Utopian race, where a near unlimited energy source has eliminated many of our conflicts, paving the way for a burst of scientific knowledge. Flying cars are possible, medicine has discovered clinical immortality, and we have begun to colonize other planets, all within the next 100 years. That is of course if we as a species is able to meet the close deadline of finding a new energy source before the world runs out of the old one.

It is possible, and highly probable, but it will be difficult. Already the effects of the oil crunch are upon us. Skyrocketing gasoline prices, inflation in American currency, rise in food prices... You just have to look around. There are good things to come out of it too, rise in public transportation, increase in hybrid sales, even those creapy scooter things from Europe have begun selling in America. It shows that we are indeed changing, but doing it at an incredibly slow pace, is this pace fast enough?

Today the International Energy Agency is studying for the first time oil supply instead of oil demand. What they have found is chilling. Over the next 2 decades oil companies are going to be struggling to meet 100 million barrels a day, meaning demand is going to swiftly out strip supply.

We need to do a great many things to make sure that we are still standing as the worlds dominant species in 20 years. An increase in funding to an alternative energy source is of course a must, but we as a people can speed up this process. Raising gas prices through any means possible is a important, it urges people to buy cleaner more efficient cars and it allows the free market to do our work for us. (People buy efficient cars, effecient cars sales rise, car manufacturers produce an even more efficient car, that car sales... repeat.) Limit your oil consumption, dont waste plastic. Cast your vote for officials that are concerned about energy consumption and pledge to do everything in their power to limit it. Run for office yourself, and make the changes that are so necessary.

I give a slight cheer every time I see gas prices go up, I know we arent out of oil yet and it is merely a product of the markets fear and instability, but it gives the necessary incentive to craft ourselves into something new. This is a fragile time for us as a species, but Im confident we can emerge from this stronger and better than before.

[Koopaking]

Yeah if we don't find a good alternative to oil, once it runs out, the world will pretty much end.

[athrun0017]

not only that.. we people will find it hard to exsist, even worse " mother earth " will not survive too long, without her fossil fuels!

[analogZero]

oil is renewable. give it a few million years and your leftover remains could be the fuel of the future!!!

[Felix42]

Actually the same thing was said a 100 years ago about coal, and some 70 years ago about copper (for powerlines). But instead of coal we now use oil, and instead of copper we use sand.

Probably, when the price for oil gets high enough it will pay of to use Wind, Water, Bio or Nuclear energy instead. I'm not saying we shouldn't care, but the lack of oil probably won't be that huge of a problem.

Furthermore many of the things you mention as consequences of the rise in oil price, is not only because of the oil price.

The rise in food prices for example, is a result of many factors, such as worldwide bad harvest, and the fact that EU (and possible the states) have been dumping food prices in Africa (that is artificially lowering prices).

The inflation in the states is because of the low US currency, which makes imported goods costlier, and because of the inflationary policy being used to stimulate the US economy.

A possible reason for the low US currency is a case of so called "capital flight (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_flight)". That is when people are afraid the exchange rate will fall, they will remove their assets from the States thus making the exchange rate drop.

The worst effect of the heavy use of oil might be global warming. Of course the size of this effect have never been determined, since the are thousands of factors involved.

Actually i do agree with you, to some degree, i just don't agree with your arguments. I do believe that we in the western world should subsidize renewable energy and tax gasoline, so that we use less oil.

I got into a debate with Sun-Tzu... this might be the death of me...

[tripletres]

i wish that humans would pay attention to the world like you all. everyone knows that oil is running out, and some people have been trying to help the cause, ie solar panals, wind energy, etc. but those people who could make a difference in the world still insist on using oil. lets see here... pay rising gas prices or use free solar energy... hmmm..

[monsoon 10]

How about some nuclear power everyone.

[leerock89]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

We can re craft ourselves into a Utopian race, where a near unlimited energy source has eliminated many of our conflicts, paving the way for a burst of scientific knowledge.

What some brilliant genius out there needs to do is to come up with an FTL drive. That will probably guarantee our survival and probably usher in a golden age for all of humanity.

[Felix42]

Well im just saying, if we used Nuclear energy, we wouldn't have problem with the lack of oil. Nuclear energy is A solution to the diminishing oilreserves, even though it might not be the best one...

What is a FTL-drive?

[Koopaking]

What we should do is fly over to the other planets and use up all of their resources for our power instead.